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Which cause matches the warming?

Measured warming beside three model runs, each panel with its verdict under the title — the one that matches set apart — and one column on phones.

Which cause matches the warming?

examples/warming-causes.json
{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "type": "multiples",
  "title": "Which cause matches the warming?",
  "source": "Sample data, simplified",
  "width": 800,
  "height": 420,
  "columns": 3,
  "showValues": false,
  "valueAxis": {
    "title": "°C",
    "min": -0.5,
    "max": 1.5
  },
  "mobile": {
    "width": 360,
    "height": 760,
    "columns": 1
  },
  "panes": [
    {
      "title": "Sun",
      "note": "Does not match: solar activity has not risen since 1960",
      "layers": [
        {
          "mark": "line",
          "name": "Measured",
          "points": [
            {
              "time": "1900",
              "value": -0.05
            },
            {
              "time": "1910",
              "value": 0.15
            },
            {
              "time": "1920",
              "value": 0.15
            },
            {
              "time": "1930",
              "value": 0.35
            },
            {
              "time": "1940",
              "value": 0.35
            },
            {
              "time": "1950",
              "value": 0.55
            },
            {
              "time": "1960",
              "value": 0.55
            },
            {
              "time": "1970",
              "value": 0.75
            },
            {
              "time": "1980",
              "value": 0.75
            },
            {
              "time": "1990",
              "value": 0.95
            },
            {
              "time": "2000",
              "value": 0.95
            },
            {
              "time": "2010",
              "value": 1.15
            },
            {
              "time": "2020",
              "value": 1.15
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "mark": "line",
          "name": "Model",
          "points": [
            {
              "time": "1900",
              "value": 0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1910",
              "value": 0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1920",
              "value": 0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1930",
              "value": 0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1940",
              "value": 0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1950",
              "value": 0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1960",
              "value": 0.05
            },
            {
              "time": "1970",
              "value": 0.05
            },
            {
              "time": "1980",
              "value": 0.05
            },
            {
              "time": "1990",
              "value": 0.05
            },
            {
              "time": "2000",
              "value": 0.05
            },
            {
              "time": "2010",
              "value": 0.05
            },
            {
              "time": "2020",
              "value": 0.05
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Volcanoes",
      "note": "Does not match: only short cooling",
      "layers": [
        {
          "mark": "line",
          "name": "Measured",
          "points": [
            {
              "time": "1900",
              "value": -0.05
            },
            {
              "time": "1910",
              "value": 0.15
            },
            {
              "time": "1920",
              "value": 0.15
            },
            {
              "time": "1930",
              "value": 0.35
            },
            {
              "time": "1940",
              "value": 0.35
            },
            {
              "time": "1950",
              "value": 0.55
            },
            {
              "time": "1960",
              "value": 0.55
            },
            {
              "time": "1970",
              "value": 0.75
            },
            {
              "time": "1980",
              "value": 0.75
            },
            {
              "time": "1990",
              "value": 0.95
            },
            {
              "time": "2000",
              "value": 0.95
            },
            {
              "time": "2010",
              "value": 1.15
            },
            {
              "time": "2020",
              "value": 1.15
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "mark": "line",
          "name": "Model",
          "points": [
            {
              "time": "1900",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1910",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1920",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1930",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1940",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1950",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1960",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1970",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1980",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "1990",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "2000",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "2010",
              "value": -0.1
            },
            {
              "time": "2020",
              "value": -0.1
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Greenhouse gases",
      "note": "Matches the measured warming",
      "noteEmphasis": true,
      "layers": [
        {
          "mark": "line",
          "name": "Measured",
          "points": [
            {
              "time": "1900",
              "value": -0.05
            },
            {
              "time": "1910",
              "value": 0.15
            },
            {
              "time": "1920",
              "value": 0.15
            },
            {
              "time": "1930",
              "value": 0.35
            },
            {
              "time": "1940",
              "value": 0.35
            },
            {
              "time": "1950",
              "value": 0.55
            },
            {
              "time": "1960",
              "value": 0.55
            },
            {
              "time": "1970",
              "value": 0.75
            },
            {
              "time": "1980",
              "value": 0.75
            },
            {
              "time": "1990",
              "value": 0.95
            },
            {
              "time": "2000",
              "value": 0.95
            },
            {
              "time": "2010",
              "value": 1.15
            },
            {
              "time": "2020",
              "value": 1.15
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "mark": "line",
          "name": "Model",
          "points": [
            {
              "time": "1900",
              "value": 0
            },
            {
              "time": "1910",
              "value": 0.11
            },
            {
              "time": "1920",
              "value": 0.22
            },
            {
              "time": "1930",
              "value": 0.33
            },
            {
              "time": "1940",
              "value": 0.43
            },
            {
              "time": "1950",
              "value": 0.54
            },
            {
              "time": "1960",
              "value": 0.65
            },
            {
              "time": "1970",
              "value": 0.76
            },
            {
              "time": "1980",
              "value": 0.87
            },
            {
              "time": "1990",
              "value": 0.98
            },
            {
              "time": "2000",
              "value": 1.08
            },
            {
              "time": "2010",
              "value": 1.19
            },
            {
              "time": "2020",
              "value": 1.3
            }
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}
Which cause matches the warming?
Which cause matches the warming?Time chart in 3 panels (Sun, Volcanoes, Greenhouse gases) with a shared value axis, each from 1900 to 2020, showing Measured, Model. Notes: Sun: Does not match: solar activity has not risen since 1960; Volcanoes: Does not match: only short cooling; Greenhouse gases: Matches the measured warming. Highest: 1.3 (Greenhouse gases · Model in 2020). Lowest: −0.1 (Volcanoes · Model in 1900, Volcanoes · Model in 1910, Volcanoes · Model in 1920, Volcanoes · Model in 1930, Volcanoes · Model in 1940, Volcanoes · Model in 1950, Volcanoes · Model in 1960, Volcanoes · Model in 1970, Volcanoes · Model in 1980, Volcanoes · Model in 1990, Volcanoes · Model in 2000, Volcanoes · Model in 2010, Volcanoes · Model in 2020).MeasuredModel°CSunDoes not match: solar activityhas not risen since 1960−0.50.00.51.01.51900195020001900 – Sun · Measured: −0.051910 – Sun · Measured: 0.151920 – Sun · Measured: 0.151930 – Sun · Measured: 0.351940 – Sun · Measured: 0.351950 – Sun · Measured: 0.551960 – Sun · Measured: 0.551970 – Sun · Measured: 0.751980 – Sun · Measured: 0.751990 – Sun · Measured: 0.952000 – Sun · Measured: 0.952010 – Sun · Measured: 1.152020 – Sun · Measured: 1.151900 – Sun · Model: 0.11910 – Sun · Model: 0.11920 – Sun · Model: 0.11930 – Sun · Model: 0.11940 – Sun · Model: 0.11950 – Sun · Model: 0.11960 – Sun · Model: 0.051970 – Sun · Model: 0.051980 – Sun · Model: 0.051990 – Sun · Model: 0.052000 – Sun · Model: 0.052010 – Sun · Model: 0.052020 – Sun · Model: 0.05VolcanoesDoes not match: only shortcooling−0.50.00.51.01.51900195020001900 – Volcanoes · Measured: −0.051910 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.151920 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.151930 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.351940 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.351950 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.551960 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.551970 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.751980 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.751990 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.952000 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.952010 – Volcanoes · Measured: 1.152020 – Volcanoes · Measured: 1.151900 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11910 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11920 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11930 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11940 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11950 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11960 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11970 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11980 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11990 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.12000 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.12010 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.12020 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.1Greenhouse gasesMatches the measured warming−0.50.00.51.01.51900195020001900 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: −0.051910 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.151920 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.151930 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.351940 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.351950 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.551960 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.551970 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.751980 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.751990 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.952000 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.952010 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 1.152020 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 1.151900 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 01910 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.111920 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.221930 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.331940 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.431950 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.541960 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.651970 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.761980 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.871990 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.982000 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 1.082010 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 1.192020 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 1.3
Which cause matches the warming?Time chart in 3 panels (Sun, Volcanoes, Greenhouse gases) with a shared value axis, each from 1900 to 2020, showing Measured, Model. Notes: Sun: Does not match: solar activity has not risen since 1960; Volcanoes: Does not match: only short cooling; Greenhouse gases: Matches the measured warming. Highest: 1.3 (Greenhouse gases · Model in 2020). Lowest: −0.1 (Volcanoes · Model in 1900, Volcanoes · Model in 1910, Volcanoes · Model in 1920, Volcanoes · Model in 1930, Volcanoes · Model in 1940, Volcanoes · Model in 1950, Volcanoes · Model in 1960, Volcanoes · Model in 1970, Volcanoes · Model in 1980, Volcanoes · Model in 1990, Volcanoes · Model in 2000, Volcanoes · Model in 2010, Volcanoes · Model in 2020).MeasuredModel°CSunDoes not match: solar activity has not risensince 1960−0.50.00.51.01.51900195020001900 – Sun · Measured: −0.051910 – Sun · Measured: 0.151920 – Sun · Measured: 0.151930 – Sun · Measured: 0.351940 – Sun · Measured: 0.351950 – Sun · Measured: 0.551960 – Sun · Measured: 0.551970 – Sun · Measured: 0.751980 – Sun · Measured: 0.751990 – Sun · Measured: 0.952000 – Sun · Measured: 0.952010 – Sun · Measured: 1.152020 – Sun · Measured: 1.151900 – Sun · Model: 0.11910 – Sun · Model: 0.11920 – Sun · Model: 0.11930 – Sun · Model: 0.11940 – Sun · Model: 0.11950 – Sun · Model: 0.11960 – Sun · Model: 0.051970 – Sun · Model: 0.051980 – Sun · Model: 0.051990 – Sun · Model: 0.052000 – Sun · Model: 0.052010 – Sun · Model: 0.052020 – Sun · Model: 0.05VolcanoesDoes not match: only short cooling−0.50.00.51.01.51900195020001900 – Volcanoes · Measured: −0.051910 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.151920 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.151930 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.351940 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.351950 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.551960 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.551970 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.751980 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.751990 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.952000 – Volcanoes · Measured: 0.952010 – Volcanoes · Measured: 1.152020 – Volcanoes · Measured: 1.151900 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11910 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11920 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11930 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11940 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11950 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11960 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11970 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11980 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.11990 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.12000 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.12010 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.12020 – Volcanoes · Model: −0.1Greenhouse gasesMatches the measured warming−0.50.00.51.01.51900195020001900 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: −0.051910 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.151920 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.151930 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.351940 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.351950 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.551960 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.551970 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.751980 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.751990 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.952000 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 0.952010 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 1.152020 – Greenhouse gases · Measured: 1.151900 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 01910 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.111920 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.221930 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.331940 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.431950 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.541960 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.651970 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.761980 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.871990 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 0.982000 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 1.082010 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 1.192020 – Greenhouse gases · Model: 1.3

Source: Sample data, simplified

Show chart data
Data for Which cause matches the warming?
TimeSun · MeasuredSun · ModelVolcanoes · MeasuredVolcanoes · ModelGreenhouse gases · MeasuredGreenhouse gases · Model
1900−0.050.1−0.05−0.1−0.050
19100.150.10.15−0.10.150.11
19200.150.10.15−0.10.150.22
19300.350.10.35−0.10.350.33
19400.350.10.35−0.10.350.43
19500.550.10.55−0.10.550.54
19600.550.050.55−0.10.550.65
19700.750.050.75−0.10.750.76
19800.750.050.75−0.10.750.87
19900.950.050.95−0.10.950.98
20000.950.050.95−0.10.951.08
20101.150.051.15−0.11.151.19
20201.150.051.15−0.11.151.3
  • Small multiples (panel notes)
  • Compare candidates against one measurement