Bayesian Trend Factor

The model fuses directional evidence blocks into log-odds: regression direction, gated trend strength, aged swing structure and exhaustion risk. Volatility is kept out of direction and acts as a quality multiplier. Confidence measures whether the evidence quality is high enough for the factor to matter. Optional modules add Pullback / Continuation triggers and HAMA-style smoothed trend candles.

Evidence blocks

Block	What it measures	Role
Direction	Linear-regression slope normalized by ATR	Primary directional thesis
Strength	ADX, Kaufman Efficiency Ratio and Regression R2	Confirms whether movement is clean and persistent
Structure	Confirmed swing HH/HL or LL/LH state	Checks whether price structure agrees
Volatility	ATR percentile in an optimal regime zone	Quality multiplier only, never directional evidence
Exhaustion	Overextension plus rejection or momentum fade	Penalizes late or rejected trend moves

Interpretation

Factor	Read
+80..+100	Strong bullish trend
+55..+79	Bullish trend active
-54..+54	Neutral, transition or low-quality trend
-55..-79	Bearish trend active
-80..-100	Strong bearish trend

The confidence gate soft-neutralizes the factor when evidence quality is below the configured minimum. Trend state uses hysteresis: it activates at Trend Threshold and exits at Trend Exit Threshold, so the state does not flicker around the main threshold. A high positive or negative factor with low confidence should be treated as unfinished context, not a signal.

Features

• Signed -100..+100 Bayesian Trend Factor plus 0..100 Confidence
• Five weighted evidence blocks with exposed role weights
• Volatility kept out of directional log-odds and applied only as a quality multiplier
• Strength evidence gated until regression direction is meaningful
• Swing structure evidence decays with age so stale pivots lose influence
• Exhaustion is a malus only; low exhaustion no longer adds confidence by itself
• Optional short factor smoothing to reduce state flicker
• Trend-state hysteresis via separate activation and exit thresholds
• Final Bull/Bear probability derived from the smoothed factor, with raw probability still exposed for diagnostics
• Confidence gate that scales down low-quality directional reads
• Fair Path regression line plus optional +/-2 ATR bands
• Candle coloring by trend state and optional score labels on threshold/large-score changes
• Optional Pullback / Continuation module with PB setup labels and CONT trigger labels, both with hover explanations
• Optional HAMA-style smoothed overlay candles with BTF-gradient coloring and visible wick/border styling
• Dashboard with factor, state, confidence, bull probability and key evidence scores
• Alerts for bull/bear activation, strong trend states, neutral transition, pullback setups and continuation triggers

Trend Candles

The Trend Candles module draws a second, smoothed candle layer with plotcandle() and is enabled by default. It is a visual layer, not an input to the BTF or continuation logic.

Synthetic value	Default source
Open	MA of (open[1] + close[1]) / 2
High	EMA of max(high, close), clamped above smoothed open/close
Low	EMA of min(low, close), clamped below smoothed open/close
Close	MA of ohlc4

Color modes:

• BTF Gradient — candle color follows the signed BTF score: weak/strong bull, neutral, weak/strong bear.
• Smoothed Candle Direction — candle color follows the smoothed candle body direction, with the MA line using an advance/decline gradient.

Use Hide Native Candle Coloring if you want the chart’s real candles to keep their default appearance while the smoothed overlay carries the trend read. The smoothed candles keep lightly transparent wicks/borders so candle range information remains visible.

Pullback / Continuation module

The continuation layer is gated by BTF direction and confidence. It does not create its own trend bias. It runs as an explicit per-direction state machine — Idle → Armed → Mature → Triggered / Invalidated — so every continuation can be attributed to the stage it came from (exposed in the Data Window and dashboard).

1. Trend gate — BTF must be in a bull or bear trend, confidence must clear the configured minimum, and exhaustion must not be extreme.
2. Armed (PB) — price comes from above/below the Pullback EMA and Fair Path, then re-enters the stricter pullback zone.
3. Mature — the pullback is now both old enough (Min Pullback Bars) and deep enough (Min Pullback Depth (ATR)). Only a mature pullback can accept a continuation trigger; shallow pullbacks stay Armed.
4. Validity checks — structure must hold (lastLow in bull trends, lastHigh in bear trends), pullback depth stays inside the configured ATR range, RSI remains non-aggressive, and volatility remains tradable. A break of structure, a timeout, or loss of the trend gate moves the state to Invalidated.
5. Triggered (CONT) — fires when a mature pullback reclaims the Pullback EMA, breaks the prior bar in trend direction, or prints a rejection wick from the pullback zone.

The PB and CONT labels include hover tooltips with the setup context, trigger reason, factor, confidence and relevant quality readings. The CONT label includes the continuation score (0..10). Defaults require 6.5+.

Notes

• The base script is a trend-quality filter; the optional continuation layer is the only entry-style component.
• Swing structure uses confirmed pivots; the structure timestamp is backdated by pivotLen, so freshness reflects when the pivot actually formed.
• Volatility confirms whether the environment is suitable, but does not create or strengthen a bullish/bearish view by itself.
• Exhaustion is intentionally a penalty against the active direction; positive acceleration alone is not treated as exhaustion.